Why tariff turmoil could be a golden opportunity for Aussie exporters

When Covid hit and parties became illegal, The Party People should have been destroyed. Initially, we were down 92 per cent. However, I looked for the opportunity and found it led to a very lucrative bounce back. We are now faced with another big event in the US tariff changes. While we must deal with the problems this causes, we should also look for the opportunities.  I should state that my comments below are about the state of play right now. The current tariff levels may change during the Trump administration, and there is a strong likelihood they will change during the next administration. There is a risk that other countries will follow China’s example and retaliate with tariffs of their own. There is also a risk that companies will go out of business, causing further disruption. All these risks must be weighed, but the tariff changes have also opened up significant opportunities that are, at least, worth considering.Here are some areas of opportunity I know people are looking to capitalise on. 1. US goods now face heavy tariffs when exporting to ChinaProblem: US goods now face 34 per cent tariffs when entering China, a retaliatory measure following the additional 34 per cent tariffs the US said it would impose on Chinese products last week. Other countries are expected to introduce their own retaliatory tariffs, although, at the time of this writing, only China has done so. If that happens, US companies will likely pull back from those countries due to rising costs, shipping delays and political risk — something Australian businesses have experienced in recent years. Australian exports were held up at the border in our recent spat with China, and many feel the same is likely to occur with US exports.Even if US companies cannot afford to pull back on their exports due to committed manufacturing, they may need to shift volume to low-tariff markets. Some may even go out of business due to falling demand.Opportunity: Australian manufacturers and brands that produce in low-tariff countries have an opportunity to fill this gap with more competitive pricing. To be clear, Australian brands that manufacture in Asia will still be subject to US tariffs being levied against those countries. However, now is a good time for brands competing globally with US-manufactured products to enter new markets or expand within their existing global markets. Products like baby formula, cosmetics and supplements come to mind as categories that can take advantage of this.Another potential opportunity is that US brands may decide to offshore their manufacturing to countries that do not face tariffs when exporting to China (the opposite of what Trump intended). I wouldn’t be surprised to see some Australian companies pick up manufacturing contracts from US companies, although I haven’t heard of any such examples at this early stage.2. Chinese goods now face a heavy tariff when entering the USChallenge: There is now a 54 per cent total tariff on Chinese goods entering the US. Previously, it was 20 per cent, and as of last week, an additional 34 per cent tariff was announced. Plus, the US has removed the de minimis exemption on low-value goods (under US$800), which means these items are now subject to the tariffs, whereas previously, they were free from taxes and duties.In comparison, Australian goods entering the US only face a 10 per cent tariff, which puts us in one of the best positions to enter or expand in the US. Most countries fared far worse.Under these tariffs, Chinese and many Asian products will become uncommercial in the US market. This is also true for other high-tariff markets, such as the EU. With this added uncertainty and political risk, many exporters will pull back. They may need to shift their committed volumes, pivot into alternate products, or cease trading.Opportunity: Australian exporters or owners of products manufactured in low-tariff countries have a golden window to enter or scale in the US — positioning themselves as a trusted, stable alternative amid global disruption.  Mining and agricultural products are two potential big winners in all of this, as well as more nich products that are manufactured in Australia. For example, I know from my days at The Party People that face paint is manufactured here, and competing brands are manufactured in the US.3. Chinese factories have built infrastructure for now-stalled US volumesChallenge: With falling US demand, Chinese manufacturers will be left with excess capacity and surplus stock.Opportunity: Australian importers can now negotiate better prices, access previously unattainable products from companies desperate to secure new business, or launch new product lines with smaller MOQs or faster lead times than would have been achievable before the current disruption.We saw this with hand sanitiser during Covid. I entered that market as an early mover and exited the market as an early leaver. I suspected the market would be flooded and I didn’t want to get caught out. Turns out I was right, and many got caught with containers of sanitiser that had dropped from $24 a bottle to $3 a bottle to being free because people needed to move it, and it was taking up space. We should all keep that in mind when tapping into this particular opportunity.Change always brings both challenges and opportunities. Moving fast can be extremely lucrative, but it is risky. Consider a tactical vs long-term approach to the tariffs given the next few months and years may be volatile under a Trump presidency. Consider diversity as a strategy. Retail Doctor Group CEO Brian Walker put it nicely: “Double down on diversification. Diversify suppliers, logistics pathways and customer markets. Global uncertainty demands local adaptability – and that starts with knowing your numbers, protecting your margin and staying agile.”Big changes bring big risks — but also big opportunities. Whether you’re exporting, manufacturing, or importing, now’s the time to reassess your strategy. Explore government support like the Export Market Development Grant (EMDG) and Austrade. Diversify, stay agile and don’t miss your chance to turn disruption into advantage.With great change comes great opportunity!