“Whatever next? Is there any limit to the rough seas that businesses are having to currently navigate?!”
In a previous article from last year, I suggested that 2026 was not going to be easy for businesses, despite the Federal Government’s optimism about the macro and per capita economic status, as the headwinds are stronger to overcome. Without descending into the vernacular, I want to say “No Shit Sherlock!”
This year is turning out to be even harder to do business. Navigating the post-Covid work/life balance (harmony) dynamic, employment legislation hurdles, and even the early challenges brought about by optimising and not being threatened by AI, are now fading into the background.
Rising inflation and the overall cost of living are not being addressed by now, with a diet of interest rate increases. Thirty-one per cent of the Australian population have no debt, and another 25 per cent are either financially secure to withstand interest rate increases or will have a pinch but still be comfortable (Sky News Pulse/YouGov March 2026). This means that the traditional form of reducing inflation by tackling consumer spending is a blunt instrument; meanwhile, circa 50 per cent of the population have all the pain.
Furthermore, the government’s medium- to long-term balance sheet, like many in westernised democracies, is no longer as healthy as it was, with the trend of borrowing, spending, and therefore being highly geared being the order of the day. This only adds to an inflationary environment. Corporate balance sheets are ok, and household balance sheets, in many cases, are actually healthier due to the lack of debt for reasons above.
However, add to this the current fuel supply and price crisis, which affects all, and we have a runway of headwinds for most shoppers and consumers that make for difficult navigation in the coming 12 months at least.
This is a time when retail fundamentals are even more important, serving as anchors to withstand the currents and ebbs and flows of what could otherwise feel like tidal waves. The key for suppliers to retail will be the supply itself. Ensuring the supply chain for ingredients, logistics, and demand planning will prevent out-of-stocks on the shelf. Vendor replenishment is going to get even more important.
Secondly, trusted brands, whilst often cannibalised by private label, become safe harbours in tough times, assuming they are in staple categories. That said, even luxury small treats can do well in recessionary times. Suppliers should therefore consider optimising the retail fundamentals of availability and visibility. Add sampling and trial to ensure that your brand is favoured over others.
Finally, the insights driven by technology will not only optimise and help keep COGS manageable, but also ensure that retail marketing is precise, data-led and delivers the maximum return on investment. Key here is understanding what the baseline ROI is in the first place. Then use the insights to drive it upward relentlessly.
Captains used to calm seas, beware, you’re going to need a bigger boat and even better navigation.
- Learn more at https://www.strikeforce.com.au/.
