From discounting to discipline: How value will power holiday volume

As the festive trading season looms, the retail narrative is shifting. It’s no longer volume at any cost, but rather a disciplined marriage of value with volume.For retailers here in Australia and in the UK, this means navigating an environment where consumers are optimistic about the season but remain acutely price-sensitive.The latest edition of the Deloitte Australia Retail Holiday Report found that, despite a rebound in sentiment (84 per cent of retailers expect stronger sales), many shoppers remain cautious: ready to spend, but only if the offer clearly delivers. The report noted that despite rising expectations of higher spending, only 23 per cent of consumers expect to buy more goods and services this year, while 35 per cent expect to buy less.In the UK, too, the story is similar. According to research from the UK online retail discounter VoucherCodes, although retail sales are expected to rise 3.2 per cent year-on-year, sales volume is likely to decline by 0.3 per cent, the first decline since 2023.So what does this blend of value and volume mean for retailers and their marketing and retail media plans?Value must be visibleWhen consumers are laser-focused on deals, discounting becomes a strategic lever, not just a tactical one. But this isn’t simply about lowering margin; it’s about communicating value effectively. From promotional creative that highlights savings, to feed-driven dynamic offers, and retail-media network placements that emphasise “smart spend”, the message must align with shopper sentiment.Volume still matters, but it’s nuancedIt’s not about selling more at any margin. Given cost pressures (for both retailers and consumers), the objective becomes: sell more of the right items, promote with precision, and avoid over-discounting that erodes brand value.According to Deloitte, around two in three retailers believe customers are likely to pay full price this year, a near threefold increase from two years ago. So, the volume play is about driving incremental demand through value offers rather than relying on old-school high-margin or full-price resets.Retail media becomes a strategic control pointWith consumer behaviour shifting, how and where you deploy media matters. Consider that early November events (like Black Friday) are increasingly the trigger for spend, as seen in Australia’s trend of an earlier sales peak in 2024.Retailers must align media spend with when consumers are hunting deals, use dynamic creative to reflect value messaging (flash offers, bundle deals), and integrate media with commerce data to ensure value promotions are accurately captured and attributed.Operational discipline underpins strategyMargins are squeezed on both sides. Input costs, labour and inflation all remain headwinds. At the same time, consumer inertia around spending means retailers can’t afford inefficiency. Optimised promotions (timing, depth, breadth), seamless omnichannel execution (in-store and online), and demand-and-response infrastructure are no longer nice-to-haves – they’re required. As Deloitte notes, success next year will depend on balancing customer experience and pricing strategy.Creative tone needs to shift: from ‘buy more’ to ‘buy smart’In this season, creatives should tap into the value story: “stretch your dollar”, “gift more for less”, “smart spending without compromise”. This tone resonates when shoppers are holding back, but still in the mood to spend. Retailers that lean into messaging around value, rather than simply volume, will likely connect better.The festive season ahead won’t be about one-dimensional growth. It will be about trading up in the right way: driving volume through value. Retailers that recognise the tension between optimistic spend intent and cautious wallet-behaviour – and build their retail media, pricing, promotional, and creative strategies accordingly – will be the ones to thrive this ‘value meets volume’ season.Simon Porter is head of retail at media agency Hatched.Further reading: What semiotics teaches us about myth and good Christmas marketing.