The stability of the global dairy market is facing risks amid an increasingly complex geopolitical environment and the protectionist agenda of incoming US president Donald Trump, according to Maxum Foods.
Maxum’s Global Dairy Commodity Update for January shows that the EU milk supply landscape varies due to attractive farm margins as well as disease and environmental restrictions.
The EU butterfat market has weakened with improving seasonal availability of milk, while cheese prices are easing.
In the US, milk production is being curbed in the short term by a disease outbreak in California. However, herd expansions will spur growth in the first half to support increasing cheese capacity. Cheddar output ahead of a demand recovery will weaken fundamental values.
New Zealand milk output growth is slowing post-peak but now runs into summer weather vagaries. Although output will be weather-dependent, good feed supplies, record milk prices and reduced interest rates will likely result in modest year-on-year growth.
In Australia, the milk production outlook for the 2024/25 season has slightly improved thanks to widespread rain. The country’s dairy commodity prices are expected to remain stable in the near future.
Cheese market competition in contested markets will remain intense, with growing US supplies, increasing NZ output, and a delicate EU market.
Maxum Foods is one of Australia and New Zealand’s principal suppliers of dairy ingredients such as milk powders, cheese and butter.
