Australia’s almond industry can expect a “much better year” ahead thanks to margin improvement due to lower input costs, high availability and affordability of water, favourable climate conditions, and improving export prices.
“The 2024 Australian almond harvest is now underway and there are prospects of a strong recovery on the horizon, after a challenging production year in 2023,” said Rabobank associate analyst Pia Piggott, co-author of the five-year almond market outlook: Significant rebound underway report.
The report said that the country is estimated to produce 164,000 metric tons kernel weight equivalent this year, up 59 per cent from last year.
Piggott explained that the improved harvest prospect will help drive Australia’s almond exports, which on average account for 80 per cent of the land down under’s output.
Piggott added that the reduction of tariffs on Australian almonds bound for India contributed to an increase in trade in the region.
Rabobank noted that global almond production in 2023/24 is estimated to decline 15 per cent compared to the 2020/21 record due to production challenges in the three subsequent seasons in California.
The US state accounts for about 80 per cent of global almond production and about 86 per cent of global almond exports.
“The final crop size this year may be even lower, given the likelihood of a smaller-than-expected crop in California,” said Piggott.
“Higher year-on-year production in the EU (Spain and Portugal) and Australia will offset the potential decline in California production and bring the 2023/24 global crop to levels similar to the prior season’s.”
Rabobank forecasts a strong rebound in international almond prices over the next 12 to 18 months despite global output returning to higher levels.
