After years of compounding financial pressure, Australian grocery shoppers have done their shopping this year not with hope of relief, but with acceptance.
Focus Insights recently released the 2025 Australian Grocery Shopper Report, which reveals a seismic shift in how consumers think, feel and behave at the supermarket. What began in 2020 as panic-driven buying during the pandemic has evolved into a new era where elevated prices, constant trade-offs, and strategic shopping habits form the fabric of everyday life. Australian shoppers are no longer waiting for grocery bills to drop – they are resigned to reality.
A new normal built on endurance, not expectation
The report highlights a critical behavioural pivot: Consumers are no longer shocked by rising grocery bills. With inflation easing only marginally while prices remain high, shoppers have accepted this as their economic baseline. Consumer sentiment analysis shows that confidence remains fragile, constrained by concerns about future rate cuts, employment expectations, and the highest house price expectations in 15 years. This macro-level unease flows directly into day-to-day shopping decisions.
In line with this, 70 per cent of Australians expect grocery prices to increase further over the next 12 months, signalling deep-rooted pessimism and a belief that affordability challenges are far from over.
Price pressures trigger widespread behavioural shifts
Shoppers have responded with remarkable adaptability. According to the report, 94 per cent of consumers have adjusted their shopping behaviours to cope with cost-of-living pressures. These changes include trading down to cheaper brands, buying private-label products, seeking specials, substituting ingredients, and limiting discretionary purchases.
The most common behavioural shifts include:
- Actively looking for specials (58 per cent).
- Switching to more supermarket-branded products (37 per cent).
- Buying cheaper meats, produce and alternatives (33 per cent).
- Shopping more often in discount retailers (29 per cent).
- Buying in bulk (28 per cent).
These adjustments reflect a pragmatic consumer who is no longer loyal by default, as loyalty must now be earned on value, transparency and relevance.
Promotions have never mattered more
Promotions have become pivotal. The report highlights that more than 90 per cent of Australians rely on promotions to influence where or what they buy, with nearly one-third stating they “almost always” shop based on what is on special. Price discounts dominate the promotional landscape, appealing to nearly one in two of shoppers.
Frequent promotions, however, carry long-term consequences: They have trained shoppers to buy many categories only on special. Categories most affected include confectionery, ice cream, frozen foods, coffee, snacks, pantry staples, dairy, and cleaning products. This behaviour forces brands to balance promotional strategy with margin protection – a challenge that is set to intensify in 2026.
A more informed, more calculated shopper emerges
The 2025 shopper is more product-savvy than ever before.
Value cues dominate decision-making, with the top influences including:
- Price (25 per cent).
- Unit price per kg (14 per cent).
- Specials (13 per cent).
Shoppers scrutinise shelf tickets for total price, dollar savings, percentage savings, and price per kilo. They also prioritise nutritional information, country of origin, health ratings, and weight/volume transparency over pack design or premium cues. Protein has also overtaken salt, sugar, and fat as the top nutritional priority, particularly for families seeking healthier yet affordable options.
Shrinkflation: The trust killer
Perhaps the most striking insight is consumer sensitivity and hostility toward shrinkflation. For many, reduced pack sizes feel deceptive. The majority of shoppers report noticing shrinkflation most in snacks, dairy, confectionery, pantry staples, and frozen foods. When shrinkflation occurs, 48 per cent actively seek better-value alternatives. Trust is further eroded when brands reduce size without clear communication. The report recommends transparent messaging, reframing value, and “premiumising” smaller packs as potential strategies to maintain loyalty.
What this means for retailers and brands
The 2025 shopper is resilient, strategic and value-driven. To succeed in this environment, brands and retailers must:
- Provide clear value without compromising trust.
- Prioritise transparency – especially in pricing and pack changes.
- Tailor promotions carefully to avoid profit erosion while meeting shopper expectations.
- Focus on health, nutrition and functional value.
- Innovate in private-label-dominated categories.
- Recognise that loyalty is now conditional, not assumed.
Australian consumers have adapted to the new economic reality. The next challenge is ensuring the industry adapts with them.
- If you would like to learn more about the 2025 Australian Grocery Shopper Report or receive a copy of this report, please contact Focus Insights via hello@focusinsights.com.au.
