Over the past year, Australians may have noticed their weekly grocery bill is somehow creeping higher, even when fewer items make it into the trolley.
Whether it is a morning coffee, a takeaway burger, or a full grocery shop for the week, ABC says the rise is evident even before the Middle East crisis triggered a deeper set of impacts.
According to a survey conducted by Canstar, the average grocery spend for a household of four is $245 per week, rising 2 per cent from last year’s average of $240.
The consumer research company then compared the prices of the same items between March 2025 and July 2026. A grocery shop that cost around $214 last year now costs $232, representing an 8.5 per cent increase.
“Wages are not catching up and, as a result, you’re really feeling the pinch when you get to the check-out,” said Lisa Asher, retail academic researcher at the University of Sydney.
However, research by ANZ pointed to a quite optimistic customer reality.
Shoppers ‘buying value, not inflation’
Findings from ANZ’s latest Food for Thought report suggest that households may not experience food inflation in the same way.
“People don’t buy inflation – they buy groceries. That’s why the cost of living can feel very different from one household to the next,” said Matthew Mann, director, research and analysis, ANZ Institutional.
Mann explained that Australian shoppers have now become more flexible in responding to rising cost pressures than they were less than a decade ago. Moreover, not every food category has experienced the same level of price growth, meaning two families can face different financial burdens depending on the products they buy each week, and how they adapt their spending habits.
“A family with growing teenagers buying beef mince, steak, fresh vegetables, cheese, yoghurt, lunchbox snacks and a weekly takeaway meal may have experienced far more price pressure than a family that is comfortable adjusting what they buy when prices change.”
Those adjustments, specifically the hunt for alternatives, are what Mann described as the value Australians are finding. From choosing chicken over beef to buying supermarket-brand milk, pasta or canned tomatoes, these simple decisions are where value is increasingly rooted.
“While consumers experience it at the shelf, the real story sits behind the price, in how those pressures are absorbed and passed through the system,” the analysis stated.
Spending becomes more selective
Against this backdrop, some consumers have chosen to switch brands or categories, search for different proteins, plan meals around supermarket specials, become more cautious with discretionary purchases and reduce premium items, the report shows.
“We’re seeing shoppers compare prices more closely, buy pantry staples when they’re discounted and make greater use of leftovers to reduce food waste,” Mann said.
Two-fifths (40 per cent) of shoppers surveyed by Canstar have also said they cut back on treats and snacks, and 38 per cent are spending more time checking the unit prices. Other strategies include buying marked down products (30 per cent) and switching to home brands (25 per cent).
Both studies reveal a fact that consumers no longer act passively as they used to; they now take the initiative in responding to changes through smarter shopping habits and adaptable choices, no matter how these fluctuations weigh on their household budgets.
“Understanding how consumers respond is becoming just as important for food businesses as understanding the costs that drive inflation in the first place,” Mann concluded.
“Food inflation doesn’t just change prices; it changes habits.”
