A disrupted Christmas and quieter New Year – but what of 2021?

At time of writing, many Australians’ Christmas plans have been thoroughly disrupted in the past few days by another Coronavirus cluster outbreak, this one particularly impacting the Eastern Seaboard.Project Hearth, a recent study of 2200 Australians undertaken by Illuminera to gauge trends in at-home consumption occasions, along with cooking and baking during Covid, was already projecting a quieter festive season with fewer people hosting or attending events (albeit an uptick in outdoor events), and fewer guests per event. Fifty-five per cent of consumers suggested that Christmas would be different this year to prior years, typically quieter even though many overtly expressed the need to celebrate the end of a trying 2020. Cluster virus outbreaks are likely to curtail the Christmas and summer socialising plans of many.Despite consumer sentiment being at the highest level in early December since July last year (according to DBM Consultants and other sources), and better-than-expected retail spending late this year, there is still a percentage of consumers exercising caution in social environments. The recent cluster outbreaks serve to underscore this from a socialising standpoint, given that panic buying of toilet paper has already been observed on Sydney’s northern beaches, the epicentre of the current outbreak.Project Hearth identified that consumers are shopping less often to reduce social contact in store, with supermarket trips dropping typically to a once-a-week stock-up shop. Shoppers are stocking their pantries in order to cook with more leftovers in mind (indicatively, the average weight of purchase per trip has thus increased).  This behaviour is likely to stick not only as long as cluster coronavirus outbreaks persist, but into next year as vaccine distribution moves forward. This is because consumers say they have found more time to plan, prepare and cook meals, often bulk cooking meals, an efficiency and enjoyment they want to retain.Looking beyond the summer season, there have been a number of benefits of the pandemic that consumers would like to retain into the future, the primary one being time. With less commuting, they have more time available to spend with family and on cooking. Nearly half (46 per cent) of those sampled in late October, were working from home somewhere between occasionally and all the time, versus 30 per cent pre-Covid.  This can be expected to continue to some extent, as many consumers may not return to the ‘office’ on a full time basis, with a number of recent reports suggesting office workers are looking for a maximum three-day week in the office and two to three days a week working from home.One of the ongoing impacts of working from home is increased snacking. Earlier in the pandemic consumers Project Hearth spoke with were snacking not only more frequently but more indulgently; out of boredom and needing a break but also as treat and reward for not being able to go anywhere. However in the past few months, in a bid to lose the resulting ‘Covid kilos’ and because many now realise working from home in some fashion is likely to become an ongoing proposition for the foreseeable future, consumers are pragmatically seeking out healthier snacking options rather than reduce snacking frequency.It will be interesting to observe how the early-pandemic indulgence and later-pandemic shift to healthier options will play out over the festive period, which typically skews to indulgence – puddings and desserts, confectionery and ‘entertaining’ categories such as salty snacks. Given that consumers are currently looking to both less indulgent options and to less socialising, theoretically this would indicate a more subdued festive season for traditional snacking and indulgence categories. Let’s see how it plays out.