Climate change could result in 20 per cent of current arabica coffee growing areas being classified as unsuitable by 2050, Rabobank forecast in a report on Monday.
Currently, 8 per cent of arabica-growing areas – found in countries including Brazil, Colombia and Honduras among others – are unsuitable for cultivation, where crops require more investment and produce lower yields, the bank said.
The report used scientific guidance to classify crop areas into four categories, ranging from very suitable to unsuitable, Rabobank said, adding that those definitions depend on present and forecast climate conditions.
“Rising temperatures and altered rainfall patterns can make coffee growing conditions less predictable and increase the frequency of climate shocks such as droughts, heat waves and heavy rainfall,” Rabobank said in its report.
“Greater variability in climate conditions poses risks to supply reliability,” the report added.
While most suitability losses in Brazil, the world’s top arabica coffee producer, are forecast to develop outside of producing areas, increasing marginality in key producing states could affect high-yield areas, the report said.
Arabica grown in areas classified as “suitable” in Brazil achieves average yields of 32.6 60-kilogram (132.3 lb) bags per hectare, while unsuitable areas see output of around 28 bags per hectare, the report said.
However, while 81 per cent of Brazil’s current harvest takes place in suitable areas, that could drop to 62 per cent by 2050, the report said, adding that the decline in output could be significant in absolute terms.
In Colombia, the share of arabica grown in suitable areas could decline to 45 per cent from 56 per cent today, while Honduras could see its share of arabica cultivated in suitable regions drop sharply to just 12 per cent, from 53 per cent currently, the report said.
However, not all coffee-growing areas will be disadvantaged, the report said.
Ethiopia, in East Africa, is forecast to see the share of its arabica crops grown on suitable land rise to 50 per cent, up from 39 per cent currently, the report added.
- Reporting by Oliver Griffin; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, of Reuters.
