IGD forecasts the global convenience channel will lose share in the grocery sector as competition from discounters, supermarkets and rapid delivery services increases.
According to IGD’s Global Convenience Trends 2026 report, the channel is expected to continue growing, but at a slower rate than the wider grocery sector, reflecting structural pressures on the format. Global convenience sales are forecast to rise from around $900 billion in 2025 to more than US$1 trillion by 2030.
IGD forecasts convenience retail will record a compound annual growth rate of 3.5 per cent through 2030. The total grocery sector will grow at 4 per cent over the same period. Convenience retail’s share of global grocery spending is projected to decline from 10.7 per cent in 2025 to 10.4 per cent by 2030.
“Convenience risks becoming a bigger channel with a smaller role in grocery spending unless retailers and suppliers adapt,” said Sneha Haria, insight manager at IGD. “The channel’s historic advantages are being eroded, and without change, it will continue to lose share.”
Regional growth trends
The report highlighted regional differences. North America remains the largest convenience retail market globally, but IGD expects it to record the slowest growth. The group projects market share will fall from 16.9 per cent in 2025 to 15.1 per cent by 2030 due to competition from discount retailers and rapid delivery services.
Europe is projected to record the largest increase in market share, driven by store expansion and franchising. Asia is expected to contribute the largest increase in absolute sales. However, convenience penetration is projected to remain below 8 per cent because of competition from traditional retail and local food markets.
IGD said discount chains, small-format supermarkets and rapid delivery platforms are reducing the channel’s advantages in location and speed. Rising operating costs, regulation limiting pricing flexibility and consumer perceptions of higher prices are also affecting the sector.
The report said operators maintaining or increasing market share are redefining the role of the store rather than relying on location alone. They are focusing on immediate-consumption and planned-purchase missions. Retailers are also using private-label products, loyalty programmes and simplified pricing to strengthen value perception. Automation is also being used to improve operating efficiency.
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