New Zealand’s domestic avocado market could grow by more than NZ$30m a year if per-capita consumption moves closer to Australia’s level, according to NZ Avocado.
Research from the industry body points to changes in meal occasions and at-home preparation as potential sources of demand.
New Zealanders currently consume around 3kg per person each year, compared with 4.7kg in Australia and 12kg in Mexico. NZ Avocado estimates that bringing consumption closer to Australia’s level could lift the domestic wholesale market from around $60 million to more than $90 million a year.
The opportunity comes as the industry heads into the new season, with almost eight million trays expected to enter domestic and export markets. Almost 3 million trays, worth around $60 million at wholesale level, are earmarked for domestic consumers.
NZ Avocado CEO Brad Siebert said broader use across meals could help increase domestic demand, as consumers move beyond the category’s traditional association with breakfast, brunch and toast.
“For retailers, the opportunity is to broaden the way consumers think about avocado and encourage them to see it as an everyday ingredient rather than something associated with one particular meal or recipe.”
The National Guacamole Day Study, based on 1000 adults, found lunch was the most common avocado occasion at 23 per cent, compared with 18 per cent for breakfast. Almost one-quarter reported eating it across multiple occasions. Toast remained the most common pairing, followed by salads, eggs, Mexican food and sushi.
Among avocado toast consumers, 61 per cent mostly prepare it at home, compared with 5 per cent who mainly buy it from cafes. About 27 per cent buy avocado toast from cafes less often than a year ago, rising to 44 per cent among households earning more than NZ$200,000. Siebert said the shift could move some spending from foodservice to grocery retail.
Social media and diverse food influences are broadening how consumers use avocado, from Indian, Middle Eastern and Pacific flavours to Asian-style seasonings. Almost half of those preparing guacamole use their own recipes, while others adapt them to ingredients available at home.
NZ Avocado said the domestic market does not need to reach Mexico’s consumption level for this to make a significant difference. “Even gradually moving closer to Australia would represent meaningful additional demand for New Zealand-grown avocados and a larger category opportunity for retailers,” Siebert said.
The research was conducted ahead of National Guacamole Day on September 16, which NZ Avocado is using to encourage consumption across more occasions.
